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3 million iPhones for launch, 45 million iPhones in 2009?
Apple plans to have three million iPhones ready for sale on launch day, June 29th, according to BusinessWeek sources. Most analysts look for Apple to sell around 3 million units in 2007, contradicting this number. PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster believes the company will sell 3.2 million units in 2007, but also claims the company could sell as many as 45 million iPhones in 2009. “While this may seem like a bold prediction, we believe a number in this area is not as far of a reach as some may think.” Munster said. “Specifically, to reach iPhone units of 45 million, we believe the product will have 7.0 percent hand set market share in North America and 2.8 percent handset market share in the rest of the world.”
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1
As usual, I think Gene’s been smokin’ some serious loco weed. 7% market share for a $500+ phone that requires a (expensive) data plan to really strut its stuff? Even the wildly popular (and much cheaper after the inevitable price cuts and subsidies) RAZR never reached 7%. It took Apple 5 years to sell 100 million total iPods and those #s were due largely to the cheaper lower end models like the mini, nano, and shuffle. Maybe if iPhone is available for $199 in 2009 and the user experience really does live up to all the hype.
Posted by dodo on June 7, 2007 at 10:55 AM (PDT)
2
I agree with dodo.
Posted by Unipalmer on June 7, 2007 at 11:54 AM (PDT)
3
Dodo -
Gene is the “dodo” - your analysis is right on the mark. The only way Apple hits those #‘s is if they make an “iPhone Shuffle”.
Posted by ambipod on June 7, 2007 at 4:16 PM (PDT)