Analyst: New iPods likely delayed | iLounge News

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Analyst: New iPods likely delayed

American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu believes that Apple’s next generation iPod models will face delays. “Previously, we believed that the new iPod nanos and widescreen vPod could be slated for release in calendar Q3 and Q4 of this year respectively. However, we now believe that both could be delayed by a quarter or two,” Wu wrote in a research report obtained by iLounge. The analyst believes the delay of the new iPod nano lies in a SOC (system-on-chip) chip change, while new video iPod development is being hindered by battery life issues. Click below to read Wu’s analysis of the iPod delays.

Wu said the nano delay appears to be caused by Apple’s move to change chip manufacturers. “For the new nanos, we now anticipate the December quarter as more likely as we believe the delay could be related to an SOC (system-on-chip) architectural change from PortalPlayer to another supplier with an integrated audio/video co-processor (likely Samsung),” Wu said. “We believe price points will remain the same at $199 and $249, but that storage capacities will double to 4GB and 8GB, up from 2GB and 4GB (we believe Gartner’s 12GB and above forecasts may prove optimistic).”

Wu said battery life remains the key issue in the next generation video iPod. “We are picking up that battery life continues to be the key gating technical factor that could delay its release until the first half of 2007 from Q4 2006,” he said. “Apple is aiming to increase both the screen size and improve the battery life—two conflicting attributes that are difficult to improve simultaneously and require significant engineering.” Wu believes Apple is exploring a number of ways to improve battery life, including better battery management software, using a bigger battery, and using both NAND flash and microdrives. Depending on how much progress is made, we are picking up that wireless Bluetooth headphones may or may not be included with this next-generation vPod,” he said.

Wu said a side benefit of the delays could be better spacing of iPod refreshes for consumers. “While it may sound counterintuitive, a positive side effect of these product delays could mean better spacing of iPods in 2007,” Wu said. “With the original nano and vPod released a month apart in late 2005, it created a very strong December quarter but exhausted Apple’s iPod pipeline for 2006. For these next-generation iPods, we believe Apple will likely pursue a strategy with refreshes in a more linear fashion.”

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Comments

1

‘‘we are picking up that wireless Bluetooth headphones may or may not be included with this next-generation vPod’’ - I could say this too, and everybody else. This is just crap, they just want attention but they have no clue what to say but to speculate like everyone else.

Posted by Pilot on June 28, 2006 at 8:41 AM (PDT)

2

All this speculation is getting tedious. I can do all I want with my 30Gb 5G and don’t need anything else! Bluetooth headphones? Why? Are they going to sound any better than wired Shures/Etymotics? (Note: there’s almost no video content on iTunes UK to drive new vpod hardware demand, unlike in the US). The only thing that would tempt me would be a 6G with a huge hard drive - longer battery life but same size! - so I could rip music with higher bit rates, or in lossless format. But it’s not that important! Better portable speaker systems would get my ┬ús.

Posted by drevo_uk in UK on June 28, 2006 at 8:50 AM (PDT)

3

Also, what is a more linear fashion? The iPod since its debut has had a generation switch, on average, every 12 months. Some rolled out 3 quarters, some 5 quarters, but the average period is 4 quarters or 1 year. It doesn’t get much more predictable or linear for the customer than once a year.

Even the mini/nano progression wasn’t all that irregular. Mini G1 came out for the Jan/Feb update cycle in 2004, Mini G2 came out for the Jan/Feb update cycle in 2005. The nano came out for the Sep/Oct update cycle in 2005, a 9 month delay and, given Apple’s past history, not at all indicative that we were deviating from the 1 update/year pattern of the full size iPod.

This analyst may know something about a delay, but everything else is pure bunghole yapping.

Posted by Code Monkey in Midstate New York on June 28, 2006 at 11:23 AM (PDT)

4

“...that wireless Bluetooth headphones may or may not be included with this next-generation vPod”
what kind of bs statement is this??? you can use that same phrase for any feature you desire.
“... Mr. Wu may or may not be a total douchebag”

Posted by shon on June 28, 2006 at 12:32 PM (PDT)

5

Next they’ll be telling us that the 6G iPod may or may not be able to do our homework or clean under the refrigerator. D:

Posted by Will on June 28, 2006 at 2:30 PM (PDT)

6

Editiors,

Let’s stick to current events.  If I want to hear someone make up sh*t, I’ll go to the psychic down the street.

Posted by A on June 28, 2006 at 3:16 PM (PDT)

7

ouch everyone.

Posted by bloop on June 29, 2006 at 2:14 AM (PDT)

8

Also, what is a more linear fashion?

I would surmise that what Wu meant is instead of the close spacing of releases as what happened with the nano and 5G last fall, the timing of release would be better spaced should the introduction of the 6G be pushed back as he speculates it could be so that in a version cycle there isn’t a spike of product releases grouped so closely together. The release of new product spaced further apart would make the anticipation of iPods “more linear” across Apple entire iPod line during each product cycle (say for example, a new release spaced every four months for the three distinct iPod lines, IF indeed the product cycle works out to be a 12-month duration).

As for all these analyst predictions, it should be pointed out that these reports generally are not meant for the casual consumer trying to figure out if he or she should be PO’d because there’s a new version coming out soon (NEWSFLASH: there’s ALWAYS a new version in the pipeline, with or without these analysts’ reports), but these are for the stock investor wanting as much “information” as possible—in the form of (well)-educated guesses if not insider information—before dedicating thousands if not millions in investment purchases. How dead-on accurate they are is irrelevant for us wanting to know exactly about the next iteration of iPod; it IS relevant (well, as relevant as trying to pick any stock winner is) in trying to decide whether it’s the right time to add (or sell) 20,000 shares of AAPL in one’s stock portfolio. There IS a difference when confronted with all this crystal ball gazing. In the world of investment, these analyses happen all the time, in all industries and not just myopically focusing on one company’s particular MP3 product line. All one has to do is look at what happened with Apple common stock yesterday to see the real impact of Wu’s speculations.

It’s up to information sites like ilounge and others like it to thoughtfully present this information in its proper context and for its intended purpose (playing the stock market), rather than draw upon this speculative ‘data’ as some sort of accurate barometer for when to expect to start saving pennies for the next-gen iPod purchase.

Posted by flatline response on June 29, 2006 at 4:21 AM (PDT)

9

flatline,
Couldn’t have said it better myself.  Don’t know why everyone is tripping over the article anyway.  If you don’t want to read a forecast THEN DON’T… it’s just that simple.

Posted by 3rdeye on June 29, 2006 at 8:15 AM (PDT)

10

why the hell are they calling it the vpod

Posted by KOOBAZI on July 1, 2006 at 9:58 AM (PDT)

11

video?

Posted by gunnie on July 3, 2006 at 1:20 AM (PDT)

12

if they need to develop anything the need to develop a scrath proof screen   then ill buy it

Posted by domooo on July 3, 2006 at 2:21 AM (PDT)

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