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Analyst: Q4 iPod numbers to be below Street consensus
According to Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, iPod units will likely come in shy of Wall Street’s 8.6 million expectation when Apple releases its fourth quarter results next week. Citing sales data from NPD, the analyst now believes Apple will ship 8.2 million iPods during the quarter. “We have analyzed the first two months of NPD data (July & August) for the September quarter and found that it suggests iPod units of around 7.4 million. When the third month of data is released, our analysis will likely lead to a different iPod unit figure than what our analysis suggests based on the first two months of data, given data for the month of September will include data related to the new iPods that are now shipping. Given the new iPods that were just recently announced, we believe iPod units will end the quarter closer to Street expectations, but still shy of 8.6 million.”
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1
Here we go with the analyst predictions again. We are heading into the holiday season (oh the dread as it makes impossible to visit my Apple store without walking on top of people) and the number crunchers think sales will come up shy? Rubbish.
Posted by FahrenheiPod 451 on October 12, 2006 at 9:38 AM (PDT)
2
Actually I think the analysis makes sense for two reasons.
First is that the iPod is maturing in its product cycle and has reached a near saturation point. The iPod main market has been tapped. Now you will see the teens, and tweens, and maybe even younger groups buying into the Nano. Apple will adjust to this direction.
Second, driving off the first, is the fact that the recent iPod is a tweak and nothing more, hence no real urgency by current users to go out and upgrade. Now, had Apple released a true video iPod I bet that the target numbers would have been higher and would have been met or exceeded.
Posted by Obadiah on October 12, 2006 at 11:28 AM (PDT)
3
Obadiah,
You are using logic and deduction, but the holiday season exhibits none of that rationale—if any rationale at all. The iPod is a standard as far a hit in gift giving, and that isn’t going to change in the next few months.
Posted by FahrenheiPod 451 on October 12, 2006 at 8:16 PM (PDT)