Apple past, present, future, Analyst says iPod the leader for only 2 more years? | iLounge News

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Apple past, present, future, Analyst says iPod the leader for only 2 more years?

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By Dennis Lloyd

Publisher, iLounge
Published: Friday, January 23, 2004
News Categories: iPod

In light of Apple’s 20th Anniversary for Macintosh this Saturday, CNET has published a retrospective on Apple’s past, present and future.

““The rules of engagement for the iPod market are new. They don’t necessarily have to follow the same rules as with their old PC policies,” said Roger Kay, an analyst at research firm IDC. “They may relinquish some control in order to gain access or control of a market that could be orders of magnitude larger than their old one.” [...]

Apple has said the iPod will succeed by offering higher quality than its rivals, even if it costs more as a result. Many analysts say they expect Apple’s consistently innovative design and aggressive marketing to perpetuate the iPod’s appeal for at least the near term.

‘We think iPod’s leading position is defendable for perhaps two years and is important to Apple’s ‘cool’ image,’ Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milunovich wrote in a recent research report analyzing the company’s finances.”

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Comments

1

apples “cool” image is long gone. now there just like every other company. monopolizing accessories for there products and keeping product prices artificially high.

Posted by Jaguares in Bay Area, Ca on January 23, 2004 at 7:16 AM (PDT)

2

Anyone else want to project two years into the future and say what the technology will be?  Before you do, look back at January 2002 and try to explain today.

Posted by thenightfly42 on January 23, 2004 at 8:14 AM (PDT)

3

apple is cool n3wb!

Posted by Schiano on January 23, 2004 at 8:56 AM (PDT)

4

How is Apple monopolizing accessories, Jaguares?  Prices artificially high?  And you know this, how?  Oh, I get it.  You just can’t afford one and somehow it’s Apple’s fault because, as a business, they like to make a profit.

Posted by The Raven in USA on January 23, 2004 at 8:58 AM (PDT)

5

What the hell does an analyst in a staid banking firm know anything about consumer electronics or cool? Give me a break, it’s pie in the sky theory.

Posted by Chomper on January 23, 2004 at 12:08 PM (PDT)

6

I would be surprised if iPod can hold on to it’s crown for another 2 years.

It’s like everything else, it’s hard to make radical design changes when your at the top, so Apple leaves themselves open to being out developed & out designed.

(This has happened many times before… just look at 3DFX, Palm Pilot, NVidia, etc…)

Posted by noryen on January 23, 2004 at 1:41 PM (PDT)

7

If He’s So Smart…Steve Jobs, Apple, and the Limits of Innovation

If Apple is really the brains of the industry—if its products are so much better than Microsoft’s or Dell’s or IBM’s or Hewlett-Packard’s—then why is the company so damned small?

“Innovate,” Jobs bellowed from the stage. “That’s what we do.” He’s right—and that’s the trouble. For most of its existence, Apple has devoted itself single-mindedly, religiously, to innovation.

But wait. What can possibly be wrong with that? After all, we worship innovation as an absolute corporate good, along with such things as teamwork and leadership. Even more than these virtues, it has come to be seen as synonymous with growth.

It’s hard to look at Apple without wondering if innovation is really all it’s cracked up to be.

Where Apple was once one of the most profitable companies in the category, its operating profit margins have declined precipitously from 20% in 1981 to a meager 0.4% today, just one-fifth the industry average of 2%.

James Andrew, of the Boston Consulting Group, for example, argues that too many companies presume that they can boost profits merely by fostering creativity. “To be a truly innovative company is not just coming up with great new ideas, or products and services,” he says. “It is coming up with ones than generate enough cash to cover your costs and reward your shareholders.”

No one knows the cost to Apple to manufacture and market the iPod, and estimates of its operating margin range widely: 2.5% to 18%. But even at iPod’s lowest list price of $299—and using a conservative margin estimate of 8%—it’s clear that the iPod contributed substantially all of Apple’s 2003 estimated operating income of $24.8 million, excluding onetime charges. Without the iPod, Apple is in trouble.

Posted by OTOH on January 23, 2004 at 2:46 PM (PDT)

8

yes Raven you are correct. i just come here to pi$$ off “real” owners of iPods. if you must know i do own one. you sound so corporate defending poor little Apple. its a proven fact that ipods overhead is greatly exaggerated. unless iPods were made in the USA by Union labor which would skyrocket the cost. but as with most electronics they come from foreign places. ahh slave labor. gotta love it.

Posted by Jaguares in Bay Area, Ca on January 23, 2004 at 3:34 PM (PDT)

9

Good Lord people, don’t let this turn into an Apple flame-war. Let’s get back on topic. OTOH, Jaguares, Raven, cool it guys!

Posted by mongoos150 on January 23, 2004 at 4:06 PM (PDT)

10

I agree. Eventually the market will be educated and realise there are other alternative to the iPod that do better job, but until then we will have to put up with the claims of the iPod being “the best MP3 player ever” etc.

Posted by Adam on January 23, 2004 at 4:39 PM (PDT)

11

Apple must be doing something right to remain up and running all these years…

Posted by Schiano on January 23, 2004 at 8:47 PM (PDT)

12

Up and running yah, but relatively shrinking. They used to be #1 fer chrissakes!

“For its fiscal year ending September 27, 2003, Apple reported just $6.2 billion in revenues, three-quarters of it from the sale of personal computers. The father of the PC—and, remember, the industry’s number-one vendor in 1980—has since sunk to a lowly ninth, behind competitors Dell, Hewlett-Packard, and IBM, just for starters. Sadly, Apple is also behind such no-namers as Acer (seventh) and Legend (eighth). So much for innovation and creativity. These clone-makers, based respectively in Taiwan and China, exist solely to churn out gray boxes at the lowest possible cost.”

Posted by Shrinking on January 23, 2004 at 10:34 PM (PDT)

13

I take it they’re making a profit, no? 

While it’s great to be #1, it’s great to be breaking even and or making some income/revenue. 

Posted by Schiano on January 24, 2004 at 10:52 AM (PDT)

14

The problem is the apple has just watched the profits rolling in from the Ipod and hasn’t much done to improve it for too long.

1st->2nd gen was an acceptable improvement, but the 3rd gen and now the minis are IMO more of a dissapointment.

And this stagnation is used by other developers. IRiver, the leader in flash-mp3-sticks, already has a HD-mp3-Player which is the same size as the ipod and has more features.

Posted by Shrike on January 26, 2004 at 1:28 AM (PDT)

15

Creative Zen Portable Media Center won best of CES.

Creative Technology Ltd. (NASDAQ: CREAF), a worldwide leader in digital entertainment products for PC users, announced today that the Creative Zen Portable Media Center won the TechTV “Best of CES” award for the Portable Audio and Video category. This prestigious award recognizes and honors the most outstanding new consumer technology products that debuted at the 2004 International Consumer Electronics Show. The TechTV appointed panel of technology journalists selected winners in each category according to their innovative appeal, usability, usefulness, and value.

Where the hell is my video iPod?

Posted by Winna on January 27, 2004 at 10:52 AM (PDT)

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