Study: iTunes-like video services have no future | iLounge News

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Study: iTunes-like video services have no future

Online video stores such as Apple’s iTunes could peak this year as more advertising-supported content is made available for free, according to a new study by Forrester Research. The firm said sales of digital movies and television shows are expected to almost triple to $279 million in 2007, but that sales will likely flatten out next year. “In the video space, iTunes is just a temporary flash while consumers wait for better ways to get video. They’re already coming,” said Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey, who called the paid download video market a “dead end.” Networks including ABC, Fox and NBC are currently offering some shows online for free.

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Comments

1

I contemplated canceling my DirecTV service a few weeks ago when I bought my new home.  I found that nearly everything I watched regularly was either available for free online (legally) or via the iTunes Store.  Ultimately, I kept DirecTV because they now offer local Hi-Def channels, along with dozens more networks coming late this year.  Now if the iTS offered Hi-Def versions of all available content then it would’ve been a no-brainer to dump DirecTV.

Posted by Galley in Greenville, SC on May 14, 2007 at 7:19 AM (PDT)

2

This report assumes that iTMS will continue to sell content in the same format. But it won’t.

Apple can and will diversify the iTMS delivery system to appeal to as broad an audience as possible.
iTunes and AppleTV will ultimately allow broadcasters to push free and premium content to users using RSS, podcast-style subscriptions. Ultimately even live TV could be delivered using iTunes as a means to manage the subscription/payment/delivery. Background downloadng direct to AppleTV will ensure that there’s always something new to watch: eg a new episode of Heroes, last night’s Sox game, today’s PTI, news at ten, Wilco’s latest video…

Posted by yashin on May 14, 2007 at 8:43 AM (PDT)

3

and this internet thing will never be practical for anyone but Universities…

some people just like to predict the doom of things they don’t like

Posted by hydra-calm on May 14, 2007 at 9:20 AM (PDT)

4

This has to be one of the most idiotic things that I have ever heard.  I would (and I think many others would agree) gladly pay for any/all video content in order to NOT have to watch annoying ads.  In fact, often I/we wait until television series come out on DVD and purchase them rather that having to mute the ads on the TV or flick back and forth between channels.  The only people that I can see wanting “free” video with ads are people who have very low incomes.  I don’t have a problem with that at all, in fact I think that it is a good thing and enables people who can’t afford to purchase ad-free content to watch what they want however I think (and hope) that paid ad-free video is here to stay.

Posted by Dale on May 14, 2007 at 9:50 AM (PDT)

5

When asked about iTunes rental and subscription service for video/tv content as well as HD content at the annual shareholder meeting, Steve Jobs said cryptically, “One never knows.”
I have an Apple TV and rip my DVDs to use them with my Apple TV.  I am hoping for rental content for movies and some kind of non-purchase temporary viewing thing for tv content for my Apple TV.
With regard to the AD supported online content - I think it’s already been proven that people do not want to watch ads - a la Tivo.  For the networks and content providers to force people to watch ads via dvrs that cannot skip them smacks of the RIAA suing their customers.  This ad stuff seems to be a disconnect from their customers.  I have a Tivo and I have an Apple TV.  I will not be watching online content with forced ads.  If I am a typical customer, then this analyst is incorrect, no offense.

Posted by Jeremy on May 14, 2007 at 9:57 AM (PDT)

6

You know I very very seldom watch broadcast or cable tv, instead am using iTunes for the series I like to watch, so far have 8 season passes going currently.. BUT the biggest issue I have with cable/broadcast is not the fact there are ads but WHY is the damn volume on commercials usually almost twice as loud as the shows you are watching?!?  Have to turn up the volume to hear the show, and then BAM! the commercials blow you out of the room.  With all of that highend broadcast equipment you think these places could equalize the volume levels a bit!

Of course they are also assuming in this that people that are buying the downloads are simply using them as a replacement for watching TV, rather than a replacement for both watching the shows you really like AND replacing the need to buy the DVD later as well for shows you keep, an enjoy again in the future… when you maybe are in the mood for a Sci-Fi tv show night complete with only shows you like…  They only ever look at a fraction of the picture when they do these analysis that its laughable they actually get paid by someone to make this cr…err stuff up wink

Posted by Brian James on May 14, 2007 at 10:36 AM (PDT)

7

I’m a huge believer in TV on DVD. I buy a lot. I don’t watch the DVD, however: it’s all fodder for my Apple TV.

I believe in paying for content that I feel has a lot of playability, and I think TV shows are more playable than movies. DVD quality is usually more than acceptable for TV shows, especially older ones which are pretty bad and would probably look horrible in HD. For high-quality transfers, get the new Handbrake—it does full-resolution anamorphic that is pretty much indistinguishable from native DVD.

I haven’t watched live TV for about a month now. I record a select number of TV shows with EyeTV. The amount of content I watch hasn’t changed much from my pre-EyeTV and Apple TV days (about 2 months ago) but I watch significantly less aired TV. The overall experience is so much better.

Posted by Japester on May 14, 2007 at 4:49 PM (PDT)

8

I’m also a huge TV on DVD consumer.  I even buy shows I’ve never eve heard of if they’re on sale and it looks and sounds interesting. lol

Now, if iTunes offered TV show downloads in the Canadian store, I would honestly buy all the shows I’m into (but have stopped watching because of the 20 minutes of ads for every hour of show), and probably discover new ones to buy.  Right now, the only show I use the TV to *record* is The Ellen DeGeneres Show, only because it’s almost impossible to watch it any other way. lol

So, as long as iTunes offers 100% ad-free downloads, I don’t think it’s going anywhere.  Even if these “free” options have 2-3 ads for every show, I’d gladly pay 2 bucks to skip them.  That’s how much I loathe ads.

Posted by illegalattempt on May 14, 2007 at 6:03 PM (PDT)

9

@Japester

I’m in the same boat as you too, but my situation is exacerbated by living in Australia.

Just like illegalattempt, we don’t have TV Shows in iTunes (although some Broadcast shows are available as Podcasts after-the-event). My EyeTV comes in handy, and I regularly find myself at the local EzyDVD store.

Cable and Satellite TV Services rarely provide content which isn’t available on DVD; The Australian SciFi Channel only just finished playing BSG Season 2.0, and then started playing BSG 1980 in the same time-slot!

Posted by Dan Woods on May 14, 2007 at 8:35 PM (PDT)

10

I’ll pay two bucks any time to watch my favorite shows without commercials.  I buy a LOT of video downloads off iTunes, and I am guessing there are a lot like me because iTunes adds more shows and movies every day.

Posted by Mary Jo DiBella on May 15, 2007 at 12:41 PM (PDT)

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